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The Buffalo Bills are listed at 6.50 in a MightyTips Telegram poll, which translates into an implied championship probability of roughly 15.4%. That's an interesting number, but I'm not convinced it tells us much about Buffalo's actual chances.
For starters, the poll had just eight votes when I checked it. That's hardly a representative sample of NFL supporters, let alone the wider betting public. We shouldn't confuse a handful of opinions with a serious assessment of the championship race.
There is another question worth asking. How much of Buffalo's reputation comes from having Josh Allen under center? He's an outstanding quarterback, but winning a Super Bowl requires more than having one elite player. The defense, offensive line, supporting cast and ability to survive the postseason all matter.
Interestingly, a November 4 DraftKings futures listing also had Buffalo among the leading contenders at +600. That suggests the Bills are receiving considerable respect in the betting market, although sportsbook odds include a margin and shouldn't be treated as pure probabilities.
I'd be interested in seeing how different projections compare once the remaining schedule and potential playoff matchups are taken into account. A team can look like a championship contender in November and still have a very different story by January.
Here's the question I'd put to Bills supporters: if we simulated the remainder of the season and postseason 100 times, would Buffalo actually win the Super Bowl more than 15 times?
Is 15% a fair assessment of the Bills, or are people giving them extra credit because of their quarterback and reputation?
For starters, the poll had just eight votes when I checked it. That's hardly a representative sample of NFL supporters, let alone the wider betting public. We shouldn't confuse a handful of opinions with a serious assessment of the championship race.
There is another question worth asking. How much of Buffalo's reputation comes from having Josh Allen under center? He's an outstanding quarterback, but winning a Super Bowl requires more than having one elite player. The defense, offensive line, supporting cast and ability to survive the postseason all matter.
Interestingly, a November 4 DraftKings futures listing also had Buffalo among the leading contenders at +600. That suggests the Bills are receiving considerable respect in the betting market, although sportsbook odds include a margin and shouldn't be treated as pure probabilities.
I'd be interested in seeing how different projections compare once the remaining schedule and potential playoff matchups are taken into account. A team can look like a championship contender in November and still have a very different story by January.
Here's the question I'd put to Bills supporters: if we simulated the remainder of the season and postseason 100 times, would Buffalo actually win the Super Bowl more than 15 times?
Is 15% a fair assessment of the Bills, or are people giving them extra credit because of their quarterback and reputation?
