Broadly correct, though good models need quarterback health, weather, and actual offensive quality to be useful.
Coaches have improved, but they still become frightened near midfield when the broadcast starts talking about momentum. Fourth-and-two from the opponent's 44 should not summon the punt team unless your offense is actively on fire. A touchback gains only twenty-four yards, and a conversion keeps touchdown equity alive. I am not saying never punt. I am saying fear keeps dressing up as field-position wisdom.
